Mike Armstrong and Paul Lane break down another volatile morning in markets as conflicting headlines out of Iran whipsaw stocks and oil. With the Strait of Hormuz still disrupted, they explain why actions—not statements—are what really matter for investors.

They dive into the real economic risk: a potential “dual shock” of slowing growth and rising prices. Is stagflation back on the table? And are U.S. recessions really becoming less frequent—or are investors just forgetting what downturns feel like?

Plus:

• Why oil prices above $90 could matter more for supply chains than at the pump
• The state of the U.S. labor market heading into 2026
• Massachusetts home sales and what’s really behind the slowdown
• The private credit stress building beneath the surface

A wide-ranging look at geopolitics, inflation risk, and whether markets are underestimating what comes next.

Markets rallied sharply after President Trump announced a five-day pause on planned U.S. strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure. But as conflicting messages emerge from Tehran, Chuck Zodda and Mike Armstrong ask the only question that really matters for the global economy: when will ships resume normal traffic through the Strait of Hormuz?

They break down the market reaction, why oil and diesel prices remain a key risk, and how rising transportation costs could filter into inflation in the months ahead.

Plus:
• Why $5 diesel may not be “crushing” truckers the way headlines suggest
• The latest concerns around private credit and where real risks may lie
• Why healthcare continues to drive job growth
• The dangers of young investors taking on speculative risk
• Seven ways to think about retiring into a volatile market

Futures were down sharply overnight—until a single Truth Social post sent markets soaring. Chuck Zodda and Mike Armstrong break down the stunning swing for the S&P after President Trump announced a delay in potential U.S. strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure.

What do we actually know about negotiations with Iran? Is this real de-escalation—or just fog-of-war messaging? The guys dig into the only signal that truly matters for markets: whether ships start moving again through the Strait of Hormuz.

Plus:
• How long oil markets could take to normalize—even in a best-case scenario
• Why $60 oil likely isn’t coming back anytime soon
• Whether the Fed’s next move could really be a rate hike
• What the bond market is signaling right now

Markets are under pressure as oil climbs toward $100, bond yields spike globally, and gas prices near $4 a gallon. Chuck Zodda and Mike Armstrong break down why this isn’t a “Sell America” trade—but a worldwide bond selloff—and what it means for stocks, mortgages, and the broader economy.

The guys debate the Fed’s toughest question: what happens if unemployment rises while inflation stays elevated? With central banks unable to “print oil,” policymakers may be forced to choose between fighting inflation and protecting the job market.

Plus: mortgage rates jump into the spring housing season, a retirement mistake that can trigger costly RMD penalties, pressure in the financial sector, and whether Americans drinking less is becoming a real economic trend.

Chuck Zodda and Mike Armstrong break down day 21 of the Strait of Hormuz shutdown and why the real economic damage may just be beginning. With oil trading near $160 a barrel in parts of the Middle East, the guys explain why global benchmarks could surge if the conflict drags on — and why Saudi Arabia is now floating $180 oil as a real possibility.

They discuss fuel shortages in Asia, shipping disruptions, refinery slowdowns, and what sustained energy stress could mean for markets, inflation, and recession risk.

Plus: options expiration volatility, China’s shrinking share of the global economy, and the latest market movers in tech and defense.

Chuck Zodda and Mike Armstrong break down another volatile day on Wall Street as oil prices surge, gas climbs toward $4 nationally, and markets wrestle with the real-world economic risks of the Iran conflict.

The guys dig into what sustained energy disruptions could mean for global supply chains, food production, and inflation — and why some strategists say investors may be underestimating the risks.

Plus, a fascinating look at how AI-generated resumes are slowing down hiring, why Gen X is quietly dominating today’s uncertain job market, and what Meta’s retreat from parts of the metaverse says about the tech race ahead.

Chuck Zodda and Mike Armstrong focus on the escalating Middle East conflict and why the economic fallout could last far longer than the fighting itself. With reported damage to LNG infrastructure tied to the world’s largest natural gas field, the potential loss of global supply is no longer theoretical.

The guys break down what losing a meaningful percentage of the world’s LNG capacity could mean for Southeast Asia, global shipping, fertilizer, aluminum, and manufacturing supply chains. They also examine the growing risk of fuel shortages, rising gasoline prices, and whether prolonged energy disruption could tip parts of the world — or even the U.S. — into recession.

Plus: reaction to the Fed’s latest meeting, Powell’s notably hawkish tone, and a reality check on clickbait recession predictions.

Chuck Zodda and Marc Fandetti break down a rapidly escalating situation in the Middle East after reports that Israel targeted facilities tied to the world’s largest natural gas field. Oil prices surged, equity markets reversed, and investors were forced to recalibrate risk in real time.

The guys examine what the energy shock means for inflation, the Federal Reserve’s next move, and whether higher oil prices could embed inflation expectations once again. They also discuss the widening spread between Brent and WTI crude, the growing impact on gasoline prices, and why this surge feels different from prior spikes.

Plus, a look at private credit risks, recession comparisons to 1990, and the broader economic consequences if energy disruptions persist.

Markets were hit with fresh volatility after reports of an attack on the world’s largest natural gas field, sending oil prices sharply higher and raising new concerns about global energy supply. Chuck and Mark break down what this escalation means for crude markets, LNG infrastructure, inflation, and the broader economy—along with a hotter-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) report that could complicate the Fed’s path forward.

Todd Lutsky joins for Ask Todd to explain why life estates can create unintended tax consequences and loss of control—especially when compared to irrevocable trusts. He also answers listener questions on revocable trusts, protecting rental properties from the five-year lookback, and navigating the Massachusetts estate tax exemption.

A packed episode covering energy shocks, inflation pressures, and smart estate planning strategies.