The S&P 500 is pushing to new highs, but the profit boom behind the rally is raising questions about how much of the AI story is backed by durable cash flow.

Mike Armstrong and Marc Fandetti break down why earnings growth across Big Tech looks impressive on the surface, why free cash flow matters more than headline profits, and whether the massive investment in AI infrastructure will actually benefit the hyperscalers spending the money. They also discuss the latest JOLTS report, why the labor market looks like a low-hire, low-fire environment, and what Friday’s jobs report could mean for the Fed. Plus, they explain why the U.S. stepped in to support Japan’s yen, how currency intervention could affect bond markets, and why Kevin Warsh’s approach to the Fed is forcing bond traders to rethink how they price long-term rates.

SpaceX is preparing to report earnings as a public company for the first time, giving investors their clearest look yet at the businesses behind one of the market’s most closely watched valuations.

Chuck Zodda and Mike Armstrong preview SpaceX’s first earnings report, including how the company plans to break out its space, connectivity, and AI businesses, why Starlink may be the most important revenue driver, and why heavy AI spending could raise the same questions facing the rest of Big Tech. They also discuss the latest pause in U.S. strikes on Iran, why oil remains difficult to trade as inventories keep falling, and what this week’s jobs and manufacturing data could mean for markets. Plus, they look at a major Bitcoin cold storage hack, why some crypto investors may have lost everything despite trying to do the right thing, whether the post-pandemic travel boom is actually fading, and why helicopter parents are now showing up in their adult children’s careers.

The market is still trying to sort out what Big Tech earnings really say about artificial intelligence, valuations, and whether investors are paying too much for future growth.

Chuck Zodda and Mike Armstrong break down why major tech stocks are swinging sharply after earnings, what the reactions to Meta, Amazon, Apple, and Microsoft reveal about AI spending, and why volatility in some of the world’s largest companies points to a less healthy market backdrop. They also discuss the latest pause in U.S. strikes on Iran, why oil remains difficult to trade as inventories shrink, and how energy shortages could become a bigger problem if the conflict continues. Plus, they look at Kevin Warsh’s push to reduce the number of Fed meetings, the debate over whether the Fed should listen more to “normal people,” and why the U.S. stepped in to support Japan’s yen.

Elon Musk may be looking to bring Tesla and SpaceX closer together, but a potential deal could raise major questions about China, defense contracts, corporate control, and just how much value is tied to Musk himself.

Chuck Zodda and Mike Armstrong discuss reports that Tesla may sell its China business to clear the way for a potential SpaceX merger, why the combined company could resemble a Korean-style industrial conglomerate, and why Tesla and SpaceX may be more dependent on one person than any other major companies in the market. They also break down rising bond yields, climbing mortgage rates, Big Oil’s surge in profits, and why capping oil company profits is not as simple as it sounds. Plus, they look at the Goldilocks inflation narrative, the wild surprises that shaped markets this week, the Strait of Hormuz autocorrect that stole the show, and why some drivers are going to extremes to avoid new car technology.

Big Tech earnings are moving markets sharply as investors try to figure out whether the AI trade still has another leg higher or whether the volatility is warning of something more fragile.

Chuck Zodda and Mike Armstrong break down the sharp swings in semiconductor stocks, why major tech names like Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Apple are seeing outsized moves after earnings, and why the broader market still looks uncertain despite several big rebounds. They also discuss Amazon’s strong cloud growth and rising CapEx, Apple’s disappointing guidance tied to supply constraints and memory chip costs, and why Apple’s slower approach to AI resembles Toyota’s patience during the EV boom. Plus, they look at the blowup of the AI-focused hedge fund Situational Awareness, Todd Lutsky’s explanation of irrevocable Medicaid trusts, and why new reports about Anthropic’s AI models hacking companies raise serious concerns about agentic AI risks.

The market is drawing a sharper line between companies that can justify AI spending and companies that still need to prove the payoff.

Chuck Zodda and Mike Armstrong break down the very different reactions to Microsoft and Meta earnings, why Microsoft’s cloud growth and spending discipline lifted the stock, and why Meta’s rising costs and weaker outlook raised fresh concerns about AI investment. They also discuss Kevin Warsh’s difficult second Fed meeting, why bond markets are testing his inflation credibility, and what rising long-term yields could mean for borrowers. Plus, they look at the risks of disruptions in global energy shipping, the push to restrict Chinese humanoid robots, the limits of the 4% retirement rule, retail investor losses in Korean AI stocks, Jersey Mike’s planned IPO, and why LinkedIn may finally be admitting it has an AI slop problem.

Kevin Warsh’s second Fed meeting left investors questioning whether the new Fed chair is willing to back up his inflation talk with action.

Chuck Zodda and Mike Armstrong break down why markets initially held up after the Fed left rates unchanged, how Warsh’s press conference lost credibility with investors, and why the bond market reaction matters for mortgage rates, inflation expectations, and the broader financial system. They also discuss the weaker-than-expected GDP headline, why the underlying economic data looked stronger than the top-line number, and what Microsoft and Meta revealed about the AI spending boom. Plus, they explain why investors rewarded Microsoft’s cost discipline, punished Meta’s rising expenses, and what the blowup of the AI-focused hedge fund Situational Awareness says about leverage, risk, and the volatility behind the semiconductor trade.

Microsoft and Meta head into earnings with investors asking whether the massive spending behind artificial intelligence can actually produce the returns needed to justify the cost.

Chuck Zodda and Paul Lane break down why hyperscaler CapEx is becoming a bigger concern for markets, how depreciation from trillions in AI infrastructure spending could pressure future profits, and why companies may need enormous new AI revenue just to break even on the buildout. They also discuss Mark Zuckerberg’s pushback against AI regulation, the risks of increasingly powerful AI agents, Ford’s outlook as buyers keep favoring trucks and SUVs, FIFA’s reported effort to attract outside investors, Nike’s struggles in China, and why DoorDash’s FAA approval for drone delivery raises new questions about technology, jobs, and public safety.

Kevin Warsh is facing one of the most uncertain Fed meetings in years as markets split over whether the central bank will hold rates steady or send a stronger inflation signal with a hike.

Chuck Zodda and Paul Lane break down why today’s Fed decision matters, how Warsh could build credibility with the bond market, and why even a small rate hike could carry major signaling power. They also discuss the renewed jump in oil prices, the unstable path of the conflict involving Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the Strait of Hormuz, and why energy markets remain difficult to predict. Plus, Todd Lutsky joins for Ask Todd to explain when irrevocable trusts make sense, why a revocable trust may not be the right first step for Medicaid planning, and how long-term care insurance can fit into a broader estate plan.